Long-term Pandemic Impacts on Choosing Careers and Majors
The pandemic likely caused significant long-term changes in consumer and business behavior, which in turn changes the future employment outlook for some occupations. The question is which ones and how?
Helping people place good bets on future employability
Whether they are students choosing a college major or workers pivoting to a new career, when they choose a career path or program your clients essentially place a bet – an educated guess – that their choice will lead to a good job in that field. Employment projections for occupations are a starting point for guidance.
In February 2021, before vaccinations’ full rollout and success was known, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) went back to its 2019-2029 projections and came up with 2 long-term impact scenarios – moderate and strong. I’ll focus on the moderate because it’s a more likely outcome given recent vaccination and economic news.
“Sticky” pandemic impacts that are not going away
Increased telework
Weaker business travel
Expanded contactless ordering
Increased online shopping
Greater demand for IT support systems
More intensive medical research
Increased adoption of automation, reduced human interaction, and productivity-enhancing technology (i.e. appointment booking software)
These impacts affect job outlook. The baseline below is what BLS projected BEFORE the pandemic.
Let’s look at a few occupations organized using Career Key Discovery’s occupational work groups (Holland personality type and similar worker traits, skills and abilities).
Least secure, most uncertain future long term
Sales and Purchasing (Retail salesperson)
Hospitality, Beauty and Customer Services (Waiter/waitress, hairstylist, tour guide)
Financial Detail (Cashier, counter/rental clerk)
Oral Communications (Reservation/hotel desk clerks, ticket agents, receptionists)
More secure, less vulnerable occupations long term
Many Investigative and Artistic occupations continue to be better bets.
Life Sciences (biochemist, medical scientist)
Health Sciences (epidemiologist, physician)
Laboratory and Medical Technology (biological technician, lab technician)
Computer Science and Technology (web developer, software developers, information security analysts, computer scientists)
Visual Arts (multi-media artist, web and digital interface designer)
Conclusion – pandemic impacts are here to stay
The new BLS 2020-2030 projections will come out in September 2021, but we can safely say that the service industry boom of the last 20+ years has suffered a major disruption. That doesn’t mean everyone should go to coding camp or become a scientist. In fact, Investigative, STEM occupations are not the right fit for many.
But our students and clients should make their next career choice bet assuming pandemic impacts are here to stay. There is increased risk and opportunity, we just need to look for them. Career Key is incorporating these risks and opportunities in this summer’s update of Career Key Discovery careers, majors and education programs. Stay tuned!
To geek out on the data, read:
Lindsey Ice, Michael J. Rieley, and Samuel Rinde, "Employment projections in a pandemic environment," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2021, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2021.3.
